An epidemiology model that includes a leaky vaccine with a general waning function

Julien Arino; K.L. Cooke; P. van den Driessche; J. Velasco-Hernández

doi:10.3934/dcdsb.2004.4.479

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2004, Volume 4, Issue 2: 479-495. Doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2004.4.479

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An epidemiology model that includes a leaky vaccine with a general waning function

1.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria B.C., Canada V8W 3P4
2.
Department of Mathematics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711-6348
3.
Programa de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Computación, Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas 152, San Bartolo Atepehuacan, D.F. 07730

Received: November 30, 2002

Revised: July 31, 2003

Published: April 2005

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Abstract

Vaccination that gives partial protection for both newborns and susceptibles is included in a transmission model for a disease that confers no immunity. A general form of the vaccine waning function is assumed, and the interplay of this together with the vaccine efficacy and vaccination rates is discussed. The integro-differential system describing the model is studied for a constant vaccine waning rate, in which case it reduces to an ODE system, and for a constant waning period, in which case it reduces to a system of delay differential equations. For some parameter values, the model is shown to exhibit a backward bifurcation, leading to the existence of subthreshold endemic equilibria. Numerical examples are presented that demonstrate the consequence of this bifurcation in terms of epidemic control. The model can alternatively be interpreted as one consisting of two social groups, with education playing the role of vaccination.

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Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30, 34K18, 34K20.

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