American Institute of Mathematical Sciences

November  2004, 4(4): 999-1012. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2004.4.999

Modelling the effect of imperfect vaccines on disease epidemiology

 1 Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, R3B 1Y6, Canada

Received  March 2003 Revised  February 2004 Published  August 2004

We develop a mathematical model to monitor the effect of imperfect vaccines on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the vaccine efficacy is not $100\%$ and may wane with time. The model will be analyzed using a new technique based on some results related to the Poincaré index of a piecewise smooth Jordan curve defined as the boundary of a positively invariant region for the model. Using global analysis of the model, it is shown that reducing the basic reproductive number ($\mathcal{R}_0$) to values less than one no longer guarantees disease eradication. This analysis is extended to determine the threshold level of vaccination coverage that guarantees disease eradication.
Citation: S.M. Moghadas. Modelling the effect of imperfect vaccines on disease epidemiology. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2004, 4 (4) : 999-1012. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2004.4.999
 [1] Timothy C. Reluga, Jan Medlock, Alison Galvani. The discounted reproductive number for epidemiology. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2009, 6 (2) : 377-393. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.377 [2] Hui Cao, Yicang Zhou. The basic reproduction number of discrete SIR and SEIS models with periodic parameters. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2013, 18 (1) : 37-56. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2013.18.37 [3] Elias August, Mauricio Barahona. Finding positively invariant sets and proving exponential stability of limit cycles using Sum-of-Squares decompositions. Journal of Computational Dynamics, 2022  doi: 10.3934/jcd.2022017 [4] Paul Georgescu, Hong Zhang, Daniel Maxin. The global stability of coexisting equilibria for three models of mutualism. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2016, 13 (1) : 101-118. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2016.13.101 [5] Qingming Gou, Wendi Wang. Global stability of two epidemic models. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2007, 8 (2) : 333-345. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2007.8.333 [6] Nicolas Bacaër, Xamxinur Abdurahman, Jianli Ye, Pierre Auger. On the basic reproduction number $R_0$ in sexual activity models for HIV/AIDS epidemics: Example from Yunnan, China. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2007, 4 (4) : 595-607. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.595 [7] Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Carlos Castillo-Chávez, Luís M. A. Bettencourt, Alun L. Lloyd, H. T. Banks. The estimation of the effective reproductive number from disease outbreak data. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2009, 6 (2) : 261-282. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.261 [8] Cruz Vargas-De-León, Alberto d'Onofrio. Global stability of infectious disease models with contact rate as a function of prevalence index. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2017, 14 (4) : 1019-1033. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2017053 [9] Yoichi Enatsu, Yukihiko Nakata, Yoshiaki Muroya. Global stability for a class of discrete SIR epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2010, 7 (2) : 347-361. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.347 [10] Yutaro Chiyo, Yuya Tanaka, Ayako Uchida, Tomomi Yokota. Global asymptotic stability of endemic equilibria for a diffusive SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence and logistic growth. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2022  doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2022163 [11] Ketty A. De Rezende, Mariana G. Villapouca. Discrete conley index theory for zero dimensional basic sets. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, 2017, 37 (3) : 1359-1387. doi: 10.3934/dcds.2017056 [12] E. Almaraz, A. Gómez-Corral. On SIR-models with Markov-modulated events: Length of an outbreak, total size of the epidemic and number of secondary infections. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2018, 23 (6) : 2153-2176. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2018229 [13] Jianquan Li, Zhien Ma. Stability analysis for SIS epidemic models with vaccination and constant population size. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2004, 4 (3) : 635-642. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2004.4.635 [14] Jochen Brüning, Franz W. Kamber, Ken Richardson. The equivariant index theorem for transversally elliptic operators and the basic index theorem for Riemannian foliations. Electronic Research Announcements, 2010, 17: 138-154. doi: 10.3934/era.2010.17.138 [15] Sukhitha W. Vidurupola, Linda J. S. Allen. Basic stochastic models for viral infection within a host. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2012, 9 (4) : 915-935. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2012.9.915 [16] PaweŁ Hitczenko, Georgi S. Medvedev. Stability of equilibria of randomly perturbed maps. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2017, 22 (2) : 369-381. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2017017 [17] D. J. W. Simpson. On the stability of boundary equilibria in Filippov systems. Communications on Pure and Applied Analysis, 2021, 20 (9) : 3093-3111. doi: 10.3934/cpaa.2021097 [18] John Shareshian and Michelle L. Wachs. q-Eulerian polynomials: Excedance number and major index. Electronic Research Announcements, 2007, 13: 33-45. [19] Fred Brauer. Some simple epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2006, 3 (1) : 1-15. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2006.3.1 [20] Fred Brauer, Zhilan Feng, Carlos Castillo-Chávez. Discrete epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2010, 7 (1) : 1-15. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.1

2021 Impact Factor: 1.497

Metrics

• PDF downloads (192)
• HTML views (0)
• Cited by (26)

Other articlesby authors

• on AIMS
• on Google Scholar

[Back to Top]