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The dynamics of technological change under constraints: Adopters and resources
1. | Departamento de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Sistemas, DMAS, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Cuajimalpa, Av. Vasco de Quiroga 4871, Col. Santa Fe Cuajimalpa, Cuajimalpa de Morelos, 05300, México, D.F., Mexico |
2. | Instituto de Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Boulevard Juriquilla No. 3001, Juriquilla, 76230, Mexico |
3. | Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Casilla 114-D, Santiago 6513677, Chile |
References:
[1] |
P. Anderson and M. L. Tushman, Technological discontinuities and dominant design: A cycle model of technological change, Administrative Science Quartely, 35 (1990), 604-633. |
[2] |
F. Bass, A new product growth model for consumer durables, Management Science, 50 (2004), 1825-1832.
doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0264. |
[3] |
W. E. Bijker and T. P. Pinch, The Social Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, MIT Press, New York, 1989. |
[4] |
C. M. Christensen, The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Harvard Business School Press Boston, MA, 1989. |
[5] |
C. W. Clark, Mathematical Bioeconomics: The Optimal Management of Environmental Resources, John Wiley and Sons, 1990. |
[6] |
D. T. Coe, E. Helpman and A. W. Hoffmaister, North-South R & D spillovers, The Economic Journal, 107 (1997), 134-149.
doi: 10.3386/w5048. |
[7] |
F. Dercole, U. Dieckmann, M. Obersteiner and S. Rinaldi, Adaptive dynamics and technological change, Technovation, 28 (2008), 335-348.
doi: 10.1016/j.technovation.2007.11.004. |
[8] |
T. Devezas and J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic growth and development, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 68 (2001), 1-57.
doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00136-6. |
[9] |
U. Dieckmann and R. Law, The dynamical theory of coevolution: A derivation from stochastic ecological processes, J. Math. Biol., 34 (1996), 579-612.
doi: 10.1007/BF02409751. |
[10] |
O. Diekmann, A beginners guide to adaptive dynamics, Mathematical Modelling of Population Dynamics, Banach Center Publications, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, 63 (2004), 47-86. |
[11] |
G. Dosi, Technological paradigms and technological trajectories, Research Policy, 11 (1982), 147-162.
doi: 10.1016/0048-7333(82)90016-6. |
[12] |
J. Fisher and R. Pry, A simple substitution model of technological change, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 3 (1971), 75-88.
doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7. |
[13] |
C. Freeman and C. Pérez, Structural Crises of Adjustment, Business Cycles and Investment Behaviour, in Technical Change and Economic Theory (eds. Dosi et. al.), Pinter Publishers, U.K., 1998. |
[14] |
G. George, Slack resources and the performance of privately held firms, Academy of Management Journal, 48 (2005), 661-676.
doi: 10.5465/AMJ.2005.17843944. |
[15] |
A. Grübler, Technology and Global Change, The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, 1998. |
[16] |
R. Henderson, A. B. Jaffe and M. Trajtenberg, Universities as a source of commercial technology: A detailed analysis of university patenting, 1965-1988, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80 (1998), 119-127.
doi: 10.1162/003465398557221. |
[17] |
G. Z. Hu Albert and A. B. Jaffe, Patent citations and international knowledge flow: The cases of Korea and Taiwan, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 21 (2005), 849-880. |
[18] |
A. B. Jaffe and M. Trajtenberg, International knowledge flows: Evidence from patent citations, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 8 (1999), 105-136.
doi: 10.3386/w6507. |
[19] |
A. B. Jaffe, M. Trajtenberg, S. Michael and Fogarty, Knowledge spillovers and patent citations: Evidence from a survey of inventors, American Economic Review, 90 (2000), 215-218.
doi: 10.1257/aer.90.2.215. |
[20] |
A. B. Jaffe and M. Trajtenberg, Patents, Citations, and Innovations: A Window on the Knowledge Economy, The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2002. |
[21] |
N. Jonard and M. Yildizoglu, Interaction of local interactions: Localized learning and network externalities, in The Economics of Networks: Interaction and Behaviours, Springer Berlin, (1998), 189-204.
doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-72260-8_8. |
[22] |
N. Jonard and M. Yildizoglu, Technological diversity in an evolutionary model with localized learning and network externalities, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 9 (1998), 35-53.
doi: 10.1016/S0954-349X(97)00027-1. |
[23] |
W. Keller, The Geography and Channels of Diffusion at the World's Technology Frontier, NBER Working Paper 8150, 2001. |
[24] |
J. E. Keymer, M. A. Fuentes and P. A. Marquet, Diversity emerging: From competitive exclusion to neutral coexistence in ecosystems, Theoretical Ecology, 5 (2012), 457-463.
doi: 10.1007/s12080-011-0138-9. |
[25] |
D. A. Levinthal, The slow pace of rapid technological change: Gradualism and punctuated in technological change, Industrial and Corporate Change, 7 (1998), 217-247.
doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199269426.003.0008. |
[26] |
C. Marchetti, Society as a learning system: Discovery, invention and innovation cycles revisited, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 18 (1980), 267-282.
doi: 10.1016/0040-1625(80)90090-6. |
[27] |
T. Modis, Predictions: Societys Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New York, 1992. |
[28] |
A. Nair and D. Ahlstrom, Delayed creative destruction and the coexistence of technologies, J. Eng. Technol. Manage, 20 (2003), 345-365.
doi: 10.1016/j.jengtecman.2003.08.003. |
[29] |
R. Nelson and S. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation, Research Policy, 6 (1977), 36-76.
doi: 10.1016/0048-7333(77)90029-4. |
[30] |
, Overview of the OECD Activities on Climate Change and the Main Policy. Tackling Climate Change and Growing the Economy, OECD Report, 2010. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/44287948.pdf. |
[31] |
F. Phillips, On S-curves and tipping points, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 74 (2007), 715-730.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.006. |
[32] |
J. A. Schumpeter, The theory of economic development, The European Heritage in Economics and the Social Sciences, 1 (2003), 61-116.
doi: 10.1007/0-306-48082-4_3. |
[33] |
S.-J. Lee, D.-J. Lee and H.-S. Oh, Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka-Volterra model, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 72 (2005), 1044-1057. |
[34] |
J. Shot and F. W. Geels, Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change. A critical survey of the literature, Industrial and Corporate Change, 17 (2007), 605-622.
doi: 10.1007/s00191-007-0057-5. |
[35] |
G. Silverberg, G. Dosi and L. Orsenigo, Innovation, diversity and diffusion: A self-organisation model, The Economic Journal, 98 (1988), 1032-1054.
doi: 10.2307/2233718. |
[36] |
A. Stirling, On the Economics and Analysis of Diversity, SPRU Electronic Working Paper Series, 28 (1998). |
[37] |
J. Tan and M. W. Peng, Organizational slack and firm performance during economic transitions: Two studies from an emerging economy, Strategic Management Journal, 24 (2003), 1249-1263.
doi: 10.1002/smj.351. |
[38] |
M. L. Tushman and P. Anderson, Technological discontinuities and organizational environments, Administrative Science Quartely, 31 (1986), 439-465.
doi: 10.2307/2392832. |
[39] |
C. Watanabe, R. Kondo, N. Ouchi and A. Wei, The dynamics of adaptation and evolutionary branching, Physical Review Letters, 78 (1997), 2024-2027. |
[40] |
C. Watanabe, R. Kondo and A. Nagamatsu, Policy options for the diffusion orbit of competitive innovations: An application of Lotka-Volterra equations to Japan's transition from analog to digital TV broadcasting, Management Science, 23 (2003), 437-445.
doi: 10.1016/S0166-4972(02)00004-4. |
[41] |
C. Watanabe, R. Kondo, N. Ouchi and A. Wei, A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 71 (2004), 365-390.
doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00351-7. |
[42] |
H. P. Young, Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence and Social Learning, SFI Working Papers, 2007. |
show all references
References:
[1] |
P. Anderson and M. L. Tushman, Technological discontinuities and dominant design: A cycle model of technological change, Administrative Science Quartely, 35 (1990), 604-633. |
[2] |
F. Bass, A new product growth model for consumer durables, Management Science, 50 (2004), 1825-1832.
doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0264. |
[3] |
W. E. Bijker and T. P. Pinch, The Social Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, MIT Press, New York, 1989. |
[4] |
C. M. Christensen, The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Harvard Business School Press Boston, MA, 1989. |
[5] |
C. W. Clark, Mathematical Bioeconomics: The Optimal Management of Environmental Resources, John Wiley and Sons, 1990. |
[6] |
D. T. Coe, E. Helpman and A. W. Hoffmaister, North-South R & D spillovers, The Economic Journal, 107 (1997), 134-149.
doi: 10.3386/w5048. |
[7] |
F. Dercole, U. Dieckmann, M. Obersteiner and S. Rinaldi, Adaptive dynamics and technological change, Technovation, 28 (2008), 335-348.
doi: 10.1016/j.technovation.2007.11.004. |
[8] |
T. Devezas and J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic growth and development, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 68 (2001), 1-57.
doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00136-6. |
[9] |
U. Dieckmann and R. Law, The dynamical theory of coevolution: A derivation from stochastic ecological processes, J. Math. Biol., 34 (1996), 579-612.
doi: 10.1007/BF02409751. |
[10] |
O. Diekmann, A beginners guide to adaptive dynamics, Mathematical Modelling of Population Dynamics, Banach Center Publications, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, 63 (2004), 47-86. |
[11] |
G. Dosi, Technological paradigms and technological trajectories, Research Policy, 11 (1982), 147-162.
doi: 10.1016/0048-7333(82)90016-6. |
[12] |
J. Fisher and R. Pry, A simple substitution model of technological change, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 3 (1971), 75-88.
doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7. |
[13] |
C. Freeman and C. Pérez, Structural Crises of Adjustment, Business Cycles and Investment Behaviour, in Technical Change and Economic Theory (eds. Dosi et. al.), Pinter Publishers, U.K., 1998. |
[14] |
G. George, Slack resources and the performance of privately held firms, Academy of Management Journal, 48 (2005), 661-676.
doi: 10.5465/AMJ.2005.17843944. |
[15] |
A. Grübler, Technology and Global Change, The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, 1998. |
[16] |
R. Henderson, A. B. Jaffe and M. Trajtenberg, Universities as a source of commercial technology: A detailed analysis of university patenting, 1965-1988, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80 (1998), 119-127.
doi: 10.1162/003465398557221. |
[17] |
G. Z. Hu Albert and A. B. Jaffe, Patent citations and international knowledge flow: The cases of Korea and Taiwan, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 21 (2005), 849-880. |
[18] |
A. B. Jaffe and M. Trajtenberg, International knowledge flows: Evidence from patent citations, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 8 (1999), 105-136.
doi: 10.3386/w6507. |
[19] |
A. B. Jaffe, M. Trajtenberg, S. Michael and Fogarty, Knowledge spillovers and patent citations: Evidence from a survey of inventors, American Economic Review, 90 (2000), 215-218.
doi: 10.1257/aer.90.2.215. |
[20] |
A. B. Jaffe and M. Trajtenberg, Patents, Citations, and Innovations: A Window on the Knowledge Economy, The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2002. |
[21] |
N. Jonard and M. Yildizoglu, Interaction of local interactions: Localized learning and network externalities, in The Economics of Networks: Interaction and Behaviours, Springer Berlin, (1998), 189-204.
doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-72260-8_8. |
[22] |
N. Jonard and M. Yildizoglu, Technological diversity in an evolutionary model with localized learning and network externalities, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 9 (1998), 35-53.
doi: 10.1016/S0954-349X(97)00027-1. |
[23] |
W. Keller, The Geography and Channels of Diffusion at the World's Technology Frontier, NBER Working Paper 8150, 2001. |
[24] |
J. E. Keymer, M. A. Fuentes and P. A. Marquet, Diversity emerging: From competitive exclusion to neutral coexistence in ecosystems, Theoretical Ecology, 5 (2012), 457-463.
doi: 10.1007/s12080-011-0138-9. |
[25] |
D. A. Levinthal, The slow pace of rapid technological change: Gradualism and punctuated in technological change, Industrial and Corporate Change, 7 (1998), 217-247.
doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199269426.003.0008. |
[26] |
C. Marchetti, Society as a learning system: Discovery, invention and innovation cycles revisited, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 18 (1980), 267-282.
doi: 10.1016/0040-1625(80)90090-6. |
[27] |
T. Modis, Predictions: Societys Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New York, 1992. |
[28] |
A. Nair and D. Ahlstrom, Delayed creative destruction and the coexistence of technologies, J. Eng. Technol. Manage, 20 (2003), 345-365.
doi: 10.1016/j.jengtecman.2003.08.003. |
[29] |
R. Nelson and S. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation, Research Policy, 6 (1977), 36-76.
doi: 10.1016/0048-7333(77)90029-4. |
[30] |
, Overview of the OECD Activities on Climate Change and the Main Policy. Tackling Climate Change and Growing the Economy, OECD Report, 2010. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/44287948.pdf. |
[31] |
F. Phillips, On S-curves and tipping points, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 74 (2007), 715-730.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.006. |
[32] |
J. A. Schumpeter, The theory of economic development, The European Heritage in Economics and the Social Sciences, 1 (2003), 61-116.
doi: 10.1007/0-306-48082-4_3. |
[33] |
S.-J. Lee, D.-J. Lee and H.-S. Oh, Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka-Volterra model, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 72 (2005), 1044-1057. |
[34] |
J. Shot and F. W. Geels, Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change. A critical survey of the literature, Industrial and Corporate Change, 17 (2007), 605-622.
doi: 10.1007/s00191-007-0057-5. |
[35] |
G. Silverberg, G. Dosi and L. Orsenigo, Innovation, diversity and diffusion: A self-organisation model, The Economic Journal, 98 (1988), 1032-1054.
doi: 10.2307/2233718. |
[36] |
A. Stirling, On the Economics and Analysis of Diversity, SPRU Electronic Working Paper Series, 28 (1998). |
[37] |
J. Tan and M. W. Peng, Organizational slack and firm performance during economic transitions: Two studies from an emerging economy, Strategic Management Journal, 24 (2003), 1249-1263.
doi: 10.1002/smj.351. |
[38] |
M. L. Tushman and P. Anderson, Technological discontinuities and organizational environments, Administrative Science Quartely, 31 (1986), 439-465.
doi: 10.2307/2392832. |
[39] |
C. Watanabe, R. Kondo, N. Ouchi and A. Wei, The dynamics of adaptation and evolutionary branching, Physical Review Letters, 78 (1997), 2024-2027. |
[40] |
C. Watanabe, R. Kondo and A. Nagamatsu, Policy options for the diffusion orbit of competitive innovations: An application of Lotka-Volterra equations to Japan's transition from analog to digital TV broadcasting, Management Science, 23 (2003), 437-445.
doi: 10.1016/S0166-4972(02)00004-4. |
[41] |
C. Watanabe, R. Kondo, N. Ouchi and A. Wei, A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 71 (2004), 365-390.
doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00351-7. |
[42] |
H. P. Young, Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence and Social Learning, SFI Working Papers, 2007. |
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