July  2008, 4(3): 489-510. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2008.4.489

Interdependency analysis with multiple probabilistic sector inputs


Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904, United States

Received  May 2007 Revised  February 2008 Published  July 2008

The increasing degree of interdependencies among sectors of the economy can likely make the impacts of natural and human-caused disruptive events more pronounced and far-reaching than before. An extended input-output model is implemented in this paper to analyze risk scenarios to a particular sector and to estimate the resulting ripple effects to other sectors. The proposed extension is capable of combining likelihood and consequence estimates from multiple experts, which incorporates traditional expected value and extreme-event measures of risk. The probability densities of ripple effects are generated via Monte Carlo simulation; hence, providing estimates of the mean and extreme values of economic losses and corresponding levels of sector disruptions. In investing for additional airline security, for example, the breakeven level of investment cost should be optimized with respect to both average and worst-case consequences. Ultimately, the ranking of the sectors that are most critically affected by a given disruptive event can provide guidance in identifying resource allocation and other risk management strategies to minimize the overall impact on the economy. The methodology is demonstrated through an air transportation sector case study.
Citation: Joost R. Santos. Interdependency analysis with multiple probabilistic sector inputs. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2008, 4 (3) : 489-510. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2008.4.489

Hailing Xuan, Xiaoliang Cheng. Numerical analysis and simulation of an adhesive contact problem with damage and long memory. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2021, 26 (5) : 2781-2804. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2020205


Jan Prüss, Laurent Pujo-Menjouet, G.F. Webb, Rico Zacher. Analysis of a model for the dynamics of prions. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2006, 6 (1) : 225-235. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2006.6.225


Sohana Jahan. Discriminant analysis of regularized multidimensional scaling. Numerical Algebra, Control & Optimization, 2021, 11 (2) : 255-267. doi: 10.3934/naco.2020024


Qiang Guo, Dong Liang. An adaptive wavelet method and its analysis for parabolic equations. Numerical Algebra, Control & Optimization, 2013, 3 (2) : 327-345. doi: 10.3934/naco.2013.3.327


Martial Agueh, Reinhard Illner, Ashlin Richardson. Analysis and simulations of a refined flocking and swarming model of Cucker-Smale type. Kinetic & Related Models, 2011, 4 (1) : 1-16. doi: 10.3934/krm.2011.4.1


Rui Hu, Yuan Yuan. Stability, bifurcation analysis in a neural network model with delay and diffusion. Conference Publications, 2009, 2009 (Special) : 367-376. doi: 10.3934/proc.2009.2009.367


Seung-Yeal Ha, Shi Jin. Local sensitivity analysis for the Cucker-Smale model with random inputs. Kinetic & Related Models, 2018, 11 (4) : 859-889. doi: 10.3934/krm.2018034


Israa Mohammed Khudher, Yahya Ismail Ibrahim, Suhaib Abduljabbar Altamir. Individual biometrics pattern based artificial image analysis techniques. Numerical Algebra, Control & Optimization, 2021  doi: 10.3934/naco.2020056


Jiangxing Wang. Convergence analysis of an accurate and efficient method for nonlinear Maxwell's equations. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2021, 26 (5) : 2429-2440. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2020185


Dan Wei, Shangjiang Guo. Qualitative analysis of a Lotka-Volterra competition-diffusion-advection system. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2021, 26 (5) : 2599-2623. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2020197


Carlos Fresneda-Portillo, Sergey E. Mikhailov. Analysis of Boundary-Domain Integral Equations to the mixed BVP for a compressible stokes system with variable viscosity. Communications on Pure & Applied Analysis, 2019, 18 (6) : 3059-3088. doi: 10.3934/cpaa.2019137


Xiaoyi Zhou, Tong Ye, Tony T. Lee. Designing and analysis of a Wi-Fi data offloading strategy catering for the preference of mobile users. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2021  doi: 10.3934/jimo.2021038


John Leventides, Costas Poulios, Georgios Alkis Tsiatsios, Maria Livada, Stavros Tsipras, Konstantinos Lefcaditis, Panagiota Sargenti, Aleka Sargenti. Systems theory and analysis of the implementation of non pharmaceutical policies for the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Dynamics & Games, 2021  doi: 10.3934/jdg.2021004


Min Li, Jiahua Zhang, Yifan Xu, Wei Wang. Effects of disruption risk on a supply chain with a risk-averse retailer. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2021  doi: 10.3934/jimo.2021024


Braxton Osting, Jérôme Darbon, Stanley Osher. Statistical ranking using the $l^{1}$-norm on graphs. Inverse Problems & Imaging, 2013, 7 (3) : 907-926. doi: 10.3934/ipi.2013.7.907


Valery Y. Glizer. Novel Conditions of Euclidean space controllability for singularly perturbed systems with input delay. Numerical Algebra, Control & Optimization, 2021, 11 (2) : 307-320. doi: 10.3934/naco.2020027


Mikhail Gilman, Semyon Tsynkov. Statistical characterization of scattering delay in synthetic aperture radar imaging. Inverse Problems & Imaging, 2020, 14 (3) : 511-533. doi: 10.3934/ipi.2020024


Longxiang Fang, Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan, Wenyu Huang. Stochastic comparisons of parallel systems with scale proportional hazards components equipped with starting devices. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2020  doi: 10.3934/jimo.2021004


Chih-Chiang Fang. Bayesian decision making in determining optimal leased term and preventive maintenance scheme for leased facilities. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2020  doi: 10.3934/jimo.2020127


Christina Surulescu, Nicolae Surulescu. Modeling and simulation of some cell dispersion problems by a nonparametric method. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2011, 8 (2) : 263-277. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.263

2019 Impact Factor: 1.366


  • PDF downloads (70)
  • HTML views (0)
  • Cited by (22)

Other articles
by authors

[Back to Top]