Pricing options on investment project expansions under commodity price uncertainty

Nan Li; Song Wang

doi:10.3934/jimo.2018042

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January 2019, 15(1): 261-273. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2018042

Pricing options on investment project expansions under commodity price uncertainty

Nan Li ^1,2, and Song Wang ^1,

1.	Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, WA 6845, Australia
2.	School of Mathematical & Software Sciences, Sichuan Normal University, Sichuan 610000, China

Received May 2017 Revised October 2017 Published January 2019 Early access April 2018

In this work we develop PDE-based mathematical models for valuing real options on investment project expansions when the underlying commodity price follows a geometric Brownian motion. The models developed are of a similar form as the Black-Scholes model for pricing conventional European call options. However, unlike the Black-Scholes' model, the payoff conditions of the current models are determined by a PDE system. An upwind finite difference scheme is used for solving the models. Numerical experiments have been performed using two examples of pricing project expansion options in the mining industry to demonstrate that our models are able to produce financially meaningful numerical results for the two non-trivial test problems.

Keywords: Real option valuation, project expansion, Black-Scholes equation, pricing flexibility, decision making.

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 65M06; 91G20 Secondary: 91G60.

Citation: Nan Li, Song Wang. Pricing options on investment project expansions under commodity price uncertainty. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2019, 15 (1) : 261-273. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2018042

References:

[1]	S. A. Abdel Sabour and R. Poulin, Valuing real capital investments using the least-squares Monte Carlo method, The Engineering Economist, 51 (2006), 141-160. Google Scholar
[2]	M. Bellalah, Irreversibility, Sunk costs and investment under uncertainty, R & D Management, 31 (2001), 115-126. Google Scholar
[3]	M. Bellalah, A reexamination of corporate risks under incomplete information, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6 (2001), 41-58. Google Scholar
[4]	M. J. Brennan and E. S. Schwartz, Finite difference methods and jump processes arising in the pricing of contingent claims, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 13 (1978), 461-474. doi: 10.2307/2330152. Google Scholar
[5]	M. J. Brennan and E. S. Schwartz, Evaluating natural resource investments, The Journal of Business, 58 (1985), 135-157. Google Scholar
[6]	W. Chen and S. Wang, A finite difference method for pricing European and American options under a geometric Levy process, J. Ind. Mang. Optim., 11 (2015), 241-264. Google Scholar
[7]	G. Cortazar, E. S. Schwartz and J. Casassus, Optimal exploration investments under price and geological-technical uncertainty: A real options model, R & D Management, 31 (2001), 181-189. Google Scholar
[8]	L. Costa, A. Gabriel and S. B. Suslick, Estimating the volatility of mining projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties, Resources Policy, 31 (2006), 86-94. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2006.07.002. Google Scholar
[9]	A. K. Dixit and R. S. Pindyck, The Options approach to capital investment, The Economic Impact of Knowledge, (1995), 325-340. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-7506-7009-8.50024-0. Google Scholar
[10]	S. E. Fadugba, F. H. Adefolaju and O. H. Akindutire, On the stability and accuracy of finite difference method for options pricing, Mathematical Theory and Modeling, 2 (2012), 101-108. Google Scholar
[11]	R. Geske, The valuation of compound options, Journal of Financial Economics, 7 (1979), 63-81. Google Scholar
[12]	M. Haque, E. Topal and E. Lilford, A numerical study for a mining project using real options valuation under commodity price uncertainty, Resources Policy, 39 (2014), 115-123. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.12.004. Google Scholar
[13]	Hartono, L. S. Jennings and S. Wang, Iterative upwind finite difference method with completed Richardson extrapolation for state-constrained Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, Pacific J. of Optim., 12 (2016), 379-397. Google Scholar
[14]	C. Hirsch, Numerical Computation of Internal and External Flows, John Wiley & Sons, 1990. Google Scholar
[15]	J. E. Hodder and H. E. Riggs, Pitfalls in evaluating risky projects, Harvard Business Reviews, 63 (1985), 128-135. Google Scholar
[16]	D. C. Lesmana and S. Wang, An upwind finite difference method for a nonlinear Black-Scholes equation governing European option valuation under transaction costs, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 219 (2013), 8811-8828. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2012.12.077. Google Scholar
[17]	D. C. Lesmana and S. Wang, A numerical scheme for pricing American options with transaction costs under a jump diffusion process, J. Ind. Mang. Optim., 13 (2017), 1793-1813. Google Scholar
[18]	W. Li and S. Wang, Penalty approach to the HJB Equation arising in European stock option pricing with proportional transaction costs, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 143 (2009), 279-293. doi: 10.1007/s10957-009-9559-7. Google Scholar
[19]	W. Li and S. Wang, Pricing American options under proportional transaction costs using a penalty approach and a finite difference scheme, J. Ind. Mang. Optim., 9 (2013), 365-389. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2013.9.365. Google Scholar
[20]	W. Li and S. Wang, Pricing European options with proportional transaction costs and stochastic volatility using a penalty approach and a finite volume scheme, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 73 (2017), 2454-2469. doi: 10.1016/j.camwa.2017.03.024. Google Scholar
[21]	A. Moel and P. Tufano, When are real options exercised? An empirical study of mine closings, Review of Financial Studies, 15 (2002), 35-64. Google Scholar
[22]	N. Moyen, M. Slade and R. Uppal, Valuing risk and flexibility-a comparison of methods, Resources Policy, 22 (1996), 63-74. Google Scholar
[23]	S. C. Myers, Finance theory and financial strategy, Interfaces, 14 (1984), 126-137. doi: 10.1287/inte.14.1.126. Google Scholar
[24]	L. Trigeorgis, The nature of option interactions and the valuation of investments with multiple real options, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28 (1993), 1-20. doi: 10.2307/2331148. Google Scholar
[25]	L. Trigeorgis, Real Options, Princeton Series in Applied Mathematics, The MIT Press, Princeton, NJ, 1996. Google Scholar
[26]	R. S. Varga, Matrix Iterative Analysis, Prentice-Hall, Engelwood Cliffs, NJ, 1962. Google Scholar
[27]	S. Wang, A novel fitted finite volume method for the Black-Scholes equation governing option pricing, IMA J. Numer. Anal., 24 (2004), 699-720. doi: 10.1093/imanum/24.4.699. Google Scholar
[28]	S. Wang, L. S. Jennings and K. L. Teo, Numerical solution of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations by an upwind finite volume method, Journal of Global Optimization, 27 (2003), 177-192. doi: 10.1023/A:1024980623095. Google Scholar
[29]	S. Wang, S. Zhang and Z. Fang, A superconvergent fitted finite volume Method for Black-Scholes equations governing European and American option valuation, Numerical Methods For Partial Differential Equations, 31 (2015), 181-208. doi: 10.1002/num.21941. Google Scholar
[30]	P. Wilmott, J. Dewynne and S. Howison, Option Pricing: Mathematical Models and Computation, Oxford Financial Press, Oxford, 1993. Google Scholar

show all references

References:

[1]	S. A. Abdel Sabour and R. Poulin, Valuing real capital investments using the least-squares Monte Carlo method, The Engineering Economist, 51 (2006), 141-160. Google Scholar
[2]	M. Bellalah, Irreversibility, Sunk costs and investment under uncertainty, R & D Management, 31 (2001), 115-126. Google Scholar
[3]	M. Bellalah, A reexamination of corporate risks under incomplete information, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6 (2001), 41-58. Google Scholar
[4]	M. J. Brennan and E. S. Schwartz, Finite difference methods and jump processes arising in the pricing of contingent claims, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 13 (1978), 461-474. doi: 10.2307/2330152. Google Scholar
[5]	M. J. Brennan and E. S. Schwartz, Evaluating natural resource investments, The Journal of Business, 58 (1985), 135-157. Google Scholar
[6]	W. Chen and S. Wang, A finite difference method for pricing European and American options under a geometric Levy process, J. Ind. Mang. Optim., 11 (2015), 241-264. Google Scholar
[7]	G. Cortazar, E. S. Schwartz and J. Casassus, Optimal exploration investments under price and geological-technical uncertainty: A real options model, R & D Management, 31 (2001), 181-189. Google Scholar
[8]	L. Costa, A. Gabriel and S. B. Suslick, Estimating the volatility of mining projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties, Resources Policy, 31 (2006), 86-94. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2006.07.002. Google Scholar
[9]	A. K. Dixit and R. S. Pindyck, The Options approach to capital investment, The Economic Impact of Knowledge, (1995), 325-340. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-7506-7009-8.50024-0. Google Scholar
[10]	S. E. Fadugba, F. H. Adefolaju and O. H. Akindutire, On the stability and accuracy of finite difference method for options pricing, Mathematical Theory and Modeling, 2 (2012), 101-108. Google Scholar
[11]	R. Geske, The valuation of compound options, Journal of Financial Economics, 7 (1979), 63-81. Google Scholar
[12]	M. Haque, E. Topal and E. Lilford, A numerical study for a mining project using real options valuation under commodity price uncertainty, Resources Policy, 39 (2014), 115-123. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.12.004. Google Scholar
[13]	Hartono, L. S. Jennings and S. Wang, Iterative upwind finite difference method with completed Richardson extrapolation for state-constrained Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, Pacific J. of Optim., 12 (2016), 379-397. Google Scholar
[14]	C. Hirsch, Numerical Computation of Internal and External Flows, John Wiley & Sons, 1990. Google Scholar
[15]	J. E. Hodder and H. E. Riggs, Pitfalls in evaluating risky projects, Harvard Business Reviews, 63 (1985), 128-135. Google Scholar
[16]	D. C. Lesmana and S. Wang, An upwind finite difference method for a nonlinear Black-Scholes equation governing European option valuation under transaction costs, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 219 (2013), 8811-8828. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2012.12.077. Google Scholar
[17]	D. C. Lesmana and S. Wang, A numerical scheme for pricing American options with transaction costs under a jump diffusion process, J. Ind. Mang. Optim., 13 (2017), 1793-1813. Google Scholar
[18]	W. Li and S. Wang, Penalty approach to the HJB Equation arising in European stock option pricing with proportional transaction costs, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 143 (2009), 279-293. doi: 10.1007/s10957-009-9559-7. Google Scholar
[19]	W. Li and S. Wang, Pricing American options under proportional transaction costs using a penalty approach and a finite difference scheme, J. Ind. Mang. Optim., 9 (2013), 365-389. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2013.9.365. Google Scholar
[20]	W. Li and S. Wang, Pricing European options with proportional transaction costs and stochastic volatility using a penalty approach and a finite volume scheme, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 73 (2017), 2454-2469. doi: 10.1016/j.camwa.2017.03.024. Google Scholar
[21]	A. Moel and P. Tufano, When are real options exercised? An empirical study of mine closings, Review of Financial Studies, 15 (2002), 35-64. Google Scholar
[22]	N. Moyen, M. Slade and R. Uppal, Valuing risk and flexibility-a comparison of methods, Resources Policy, 22 (1996), 63-74. Google Scholar
[23]	S. C. Myers, Finance theory and financial strategy, Interfaces, 14 (1984), 126-137. doi: 10.1287/inte.14.1.126. Google Scholar
[24]	L. Trigeorgis, The nature of option interactions and the valuation of investments with multiple real options, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28 (1993), 1-20. doi: 10.2307/2331148. Google Scholar
[25]	L. Trigeorgis, Real Options, Princeton Series in Applied Mathematics, The MIT Press, Princeton, NJ, 1996. Google Scholar
[26]	R. S. Varga, Matrix Iterative Analysis, Prentice-Hall, Engelwood Cliffs, NJ, 1962. Google Scholar
[27]	S. Wang, A novel fitted finite volume method for the Black-Scholes equation governing option pricing, IMA J. Numer. Anal., 24 (2004), 699-720. doi: 10.1093/imanum/24.4.699. Google Scholar
[28]	S. Wang, L. S. Jennings and K. L. Teo, Numerical solution of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations by an upwind finite volume method, Journal of Global Optimization, 27 (2003), 177-192. doi: 10.1023/A:1024980623095. Google Scholar
[29]	S. Wang, S. Zhang and Z. Fang, A superconvergent fitted finite volume Method for Black-Scholes equations governing European and American option valuation, Numerical Methods For Partial Differential Equations, 31 (2015), 181-208. doi: 10.1002/num.21941. Google Scholar
[30]	P. Wilmott, J. Dewynne and S. Howison, Option Pricing: Mathematical Models and Computation, Oxford Financial Press, Oxford, 1993. Google Scholar

Figure 4.1. The computed option value for Test 1.

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Figure 4.2. Computed option values at $t = 0$ for the different values of $\kappa$ and $\sigma$

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Figure 4.3. Computed values of compound and normal options.

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Figure 4.4. Computed option values and their differences for Test 2.

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Table 4.1. Project and market data used in Test 1.

$Q = 10^4$ million tons	$B = 30\%$ per annum
$C_0 = {\rm US}\$$35	$ C(t) = C_0\times e^{0.005t}$
$ R = 5\%$ per annum	$ r = 0.06$ per annum
$ K = {\rm US}\$10^4$ million	$ T = 2$ years
$ \sigma = 30\%$	$ \delta = 0.02$
$ q_0 = 0.01Q \times e^{0.007t}$	$ q_1 = \begin{cases} q_0&t < T \\ \kappa \times q_0&t \ge T \end{cases}$

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$Q = 10^4$ million tons	$B = 30\%$ per annum
$C_0 = {\rm US}\$$35	$ C(t) = C_0\times e^{0.005t}$
$ R = 5\%$ per annum	$ r = 0.06$ per annum
$ K = {\rm US}\$10^4$ million	$ T = 2$ years
$ \sigma = 30\%$	$ \delta = 0.02$
$ q_0 = 0.01Q \times e^{0.007t}$	$ q_1 = \begin{cases} q_0&t < T \\ \kappa \times q_0&t \ge T \end{cases}$

Table 4.2. Project and market data used in Test 2.

$ T_1 = 2$ years	$ T_2 = 4$ years
$ K_1 = {\rm US}\$10^4$ million	$ K_2 = {\rm US}\$2 \times 10^4$ million
$ q_1 = \begin{cases} q_0&t < T_1 \\ 2 q_0&t \ge T_1 \end{cases}$	$ q_2 = \begin{cases} q_1&t < T_2 \\ 2 q_1&t \ge T_2 \end{cases}$

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$ T_1 = 2$ years	$ T_2 = 4$ years
$ K_1 = {\rm US}\$10^4$ million	$ K_2 = {\rm US}\$2 \times 10^4$ million
$ q_1 = \begin{cases} q_0&t < T_1 \\ 2 q_0&t \ge T_1 \end{cases}$	$ q_2 = \begin{cases} q_1&t < T_2 \\ 2 q_1&t \ge T_2 \end{cases}$

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