American Institute of Mathematical Sciences

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2005, 2(4): 753-769. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.753

The Role of Vaccination in the Control of SARS

Julijana Gjorgjieva 1, , Kelly Smith 2, , Gerardo Chowell 3, , Fabio Sánchez 4, , Jessica Snyder 5, and  Carlos Castillo-Chavez 6,

1. 

Department of Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College, 340 E. Foothill Blvd. Claremont, CA 91711, United States
2. 

Mathematics department, Clarion University of Pennsylvania, Clarion, Pennsylvania 16214, United States
3. 

Theoretical Division (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States
4. 

BSCB, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States
5. 

College of Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
6. 

Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1804, United States

Received  June 2005 Revised  September 2005 Published  October 2005

We assess pre-outbreak and during-outbreak vaccination as control strategies for SARS epidemics using a mathematical model that includes susceptible, latent (traced and untraced), infectious, isolated and recovered individuals. Scenarios focusing on policies that include contact tracing and levels of self-isolation among untraced infected individuals are explored. Bounds on the proportion of pre-outbreak successfully vaccinated individuals are provided using the the basic reproductive number. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the reproductive number are carried out. The final epidemic size under different vaccination scenarios is computed.
Keywords: vaccination, isolation., severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), contact tracing, mathematical model.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D3.
Citation: Julijana Gjorgjieva, Kelly Smith, Gerardo Chowell, Fabio Sánchez, Jessica Snyder, Carlos Castillo-Chavez. The Role of Vaccination in the Control of SARS. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2005, 2 (4) : 753-769. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.753
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