American Institute of Mathematical Sciences

Advanced
2010, 7(3): 687-717. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.687

A cost-based comparison of quarantine strategies for new emerging diseases

Anuj Mubayi 1, , Christopher Kribs Zaleta 2, , Maia Martcheva 3, and  Carlos Castillo-Chávez 1,

1. 

Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Science Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1904, United States
2. 

Department of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019-0408, United States
3. 

Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8105, United States

Received  January 2009 Revised  February 2010 Published  June 2010

A classical epidemiological framework is used to provide a preliminary cost analysis of the effects of quarantine and isolation on the dynamics of infectious diseases for which no treatment or immediate diagnosis tools are available. Within this framework we consider the cost incurred from the implementation of three types of dynamic control strategies. Taking the context of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong as an example, we use a simple cost function to compare the total cost of each mixed (quarantine and isolation) control strategy from a public health resource allocation perspective. The goal is to extend existing epi-economics methodology by developing a theoretical framework of dynamic quarantine strategies aimed at emerging diseases, by drawing upon the large body of literature on the dynamics of infectious diseases. We find that the total cost decreases with increases in the quarantine rates past a critical value, regardless of the resource allocation strategy. In the case of a manageable outbreak resources must be used early to achieve the best results whereas in case of an unmanageable outbreak, a constant-effort strategy seems the best among our limited plausible sets.
Keywords: reproductive number, SARS, isolation, cost-effectiveness analysis., quarantine, Contact tracing.
Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 58F15, 58F17; Secondary: 53C3.
Citation: Anuj Mubayi, Christopher Kribs Zaleta, Maia Martcheva, Carlos Castillo-Chávez. A cost-based comparison of quarantine strategies for new emerging diseases. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2010, 7 (3) : 687-717. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.687
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