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Modelling the strategies for age specific vaccination scheduling during influenza pandemic outbreaks
1. | Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1, Hungary |
2. | Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1. |
References:
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M. E. Alexander, C. S. Bowman, Z. Feng, M. Gardam, S. M. Moghadas, G. Röst, J. Wu and P. Yan, Emergence of drug-resistance: Implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza, P. Roy. Soc. B - Biol. Sci., 274 (2007), 1675-1684. |
[2] |
M. E. Alexander, S. M. Moghadas, G. Röst and J. Wu, A delay differential model for pandemic influenza with antiviral treatment, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 70 (2008), 382-397.
doi: 10.1007/s11538-007-9257-2. |
[3] |
J. Arino, F. Brauer, P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough and J. Wu, Simple models for containment of a pandemic, J. R. Soc. Interface, 3 (2006), 453-457.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0112. |
[4] |
P. Baccam, C. Beauchemin, C. A. Macken, F. G. Hayden and A. S. Perelson, Kinetics of influenza A virus infection in humans, J. Virol., 80 (2006), 7590-7599.
doi: 10.1128/JVI.01623-05. |
[5] |
D. Balcan et al., Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): A Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility, BMC Medicine, 7 (2009).
doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-45. |
[6] |
N. E. Basta, E. M. Halloran, L. Matrajt and I. M. Longini Jr., Estimating influenza vaccine efficacy from challenge and community-based study data, Am. J. Epidemiol., 168 (2008), 1343-1352.
doi: 10.1093/aje/kwn259. |
[7] |
G. Chowell, C. E. Ammon, N. W. Hengartner and J. M. Hyman, Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions, J. Theor. Biol., 241 (2006), 193-204.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.11.026. |
[8] |
G. Chowell, M. A. Miller and C. Viboud, Seasonal influenza in the United States, France and Australia: Transmission and prospects for control, Epidemiol. Infect., 136 (2007), 852-864. |
[9] |
G. Chowell, C. Viboud, X. Wang, S. Bertozzi and M. Miller, Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza - Mexico as a case study, PLoS ONE, 4 (2009), e8164.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008164. |
[10] |
CDC, Prevention and control of influenza: Recommendations of the advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP), July 17, 2008 / 57 (Early Release), (2008), 1-60 |
[11] |
CDC, "Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine," http://www.cdc.gov/Flu/protect/keyfacts.htm, 2009. |
[12] |
O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek and M. G. Roberts, The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models, J. R. Soc. Interface, 7 (2010), 873-885
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0386. |
[13] |
L. J. Donaldson, P. D. Rutter, B. M. Ellis, F. E. C. Greaves, O. T. Mytton, R. G. Pebody and I. E. Yardley, Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: Public health surveillance study, British Medical Journal, 339 (2009), b5213. |
[14] |
European CDC Risk Assessment, "Pandemic H1N1," Version 6, 6 November 2009. |
[15] |
Eurostat, "Population Statistics 2006 Edition," Official Publications of the European Communities (Luxembourg), 2006. |
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F. Falus and B. Oroszi, "National Chief Medical Officer's Office," Hungary, personal communication, 2009. |
[17] |
N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka and P. C. Cooley, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, Nature, 442 (2006), 448-452.
doi: 10.1038/nature04795. |
[18] |
D. M. Fleming and A. J. Elliot, Estimating the risk population in relation to influenza vaccination policy, Vaccine, 24 (2006), 4378-4385.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.02.053. |
[19] |
M. Z. Gojovic, B. Sander, D. Fisman, M. D. Krahn and C. T. Bauch, Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Can. Med. Assoc. J., 181 (2009), 673 10.1503/cmaj.091641.
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.091641. |
[20] |
E. Goldstein, A. Apolloni, B. Lewis, J. C. Miller, M. Macauley, S. Eubank, M. Lipsitch and J. Wallinga, Distribution of vaccine/antivirals and the least spread line in a stratified population, J. R. Soc. Interface, 7 (2009), 755-764.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0393. |
[21] |
M. E. Greenberg, M. H. Lai, G. F. Hartel, C. H. Wichems, C. Gittleson, J. Bennet, G. Dawson, W. Hu, C. Leggio, D. Washington and R. L. Basser, Response to a monovalent influenza a (H1N1) 2009 vaccine, N. Eng. J. Med., 361 (2009), 2405-2413.
doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0907413. |
[22] |
K. Hancock, V. Veguilla, X. Lu, et al., Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, N. Engl. J. Med., 361 (2009), 1945-1952.
doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0906453. |
[23] |
J. M. Heffernan, R. J. Smith and L. M. Wahl, Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio, J. R. Soc. Interface, 2 (2005), 281-293.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2005.0042. |
[24] |
K. Johansen, A. Nicoll, B. C. Ciancio and P. Kramarz, Pandemic influenza A(A(H1N1)v) 2009 vaccines in the European Union, Euro Surveill, 14 (2009), pii=19361. |
[25] |
I. M. Longini Jr and M. E. Halloran, Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children, Am. J. Epidemiol., 161 (2005), 303.
doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi053. |
[26] |
L. Matrajt and I. M. Longini, "Optimizing Vaccine Allocation at Different Points in Time During an Epidemic," UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series 363, 2010. |
[27] |
J. Medlock and A. P. Galvani, Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution, Science, 325 (2009), 1705-1708.
doi: 10.1126/science.1175570. |
[28] |
J. Medlock, L. A. Meyers and A. P. Galvani, "Optimizing Allocation for a Delayed Influenza Vaccine Campaign," PLOS Curr Influenza, RRN1134, 2010. |
[29] |
S. Merler, M. Ajelli and C. Rizzo, Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic, BMC Infectious Diseases, 9 (2009), 117.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-9-117. |
[30] |
E. Miller, K. Hoschler, P. Hardelid, E. Stanford, N. Andrews and M. Zambon, Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study, The Lancet, 375 (2010), 1100-1108.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)62126-7. |
[31] |
S. M. Moghadas, C. S. Bowman, G. Röst and J. Wu, Population-wide emergence of antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza, PLOS ONE, 3 (2008), e1839. |
[32] |
S. M. Moghadas, C. S. Bowman, G. Röst, D. Fisman and J. Wu, Post-exposure prophylaxis during pandemic outbreaks, BMC Medicine, 3 (2009). |
[33] |
S. Moghadas, T. Day, C. Bauch, S. M. Driedger, F. Brauer, A. L. Greer, P. Yan, J. Wu, N. Pizzi and D. N. Fisman, Modelling an influenza pandemic: A guide for the perplexed, Can. Med. Assoc. J., August 4, 2009, 181 (2009), 171-173. |
[34] |
J. Mossong, N. Hens, M. Nit et al., Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases, PLOS Medicine, 5 (2008), e74.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074. |
[35] |
S. D. Mylius, T. J. Hagenaars, A. K. Lugnér and J. Wallinga, Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing, Vaccine, 26 (2008), 3742-3749.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.043. |
[36] |
K. L. Nichol, Efficacy/clinical effectiveness of inactivated influenza virus vaccines in adults 1998, In: Nicholson KG, Webster RG, Hay AJ, editors. Textbook of influenza. Malden, MA: Blackwell Science Ltd., (1998), 358-372. |
[37] |
H. Nishiura and K. Iwata, A simple mathematical approach to deciding the dosage of vaccine against pandemic H1N1 influenza, Euro. Surveill, 14 (2009), pii=19396. |
[38] |
A. M. Presanis, D. De Angelis, A. Hagy, C. Reed, S. Riley, et al., The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis, PLoS Med., 6 (2009), e1000207.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207. |
[39] |
R. Robinson, "A(H1N1)v Vaccine Products and Production, ACIP July 2009 Meeting," www.cdc.gov/vaccines/recs/acip/downloads/mtg-slides-jul09-flu/05-Flu-Robinson.pdf. |
[40] |
R. E. Serfling, I. L. Sherman and W. J. Houseworth, Excess pneumonia-influenza mortality by age and sex in three major influenza A2 epidemics, United States, 1957-58, 1960 and 1963, Am. J. Epidemiol., 86 (1967), 433-441. |
[41] |
V. Sypsa, I. Pavlopoulou and A. Hatzakis, "Use of an Inactivated Vaccine in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Spread: A Modelling Study to Assess the Impact of Vaccination Timing and Prioritisation Strategies," Euro Surveill, 2009, pii=19356. |
[42] |
A. R. Tuite, D. N. Fisman, J. C. Kwong and A. L. Greer, Optimal pandemic influenza vaccine allocation strategies for the Canadian population, PLOS ONE, 5 (2010), e10520.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010520. |
[43] |
A. R. Tuite, A. L. Greer, M. Whelan, A. L. Winter, B. Lee, P. Yan, J. Wu, S. M. Moghadas, D. Buckeridge, B. Pourbohloul and D. N. Fisman, Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza, Can. Med. Assoc. J., 182 (2009), 131.
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.091807. |
[44] |
L. Vaillant, G. La Ruche, P. Barboza, for the epidemic intelligence team at InVS, Epidemiology of fatal cases associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza 2009, Euro., Surveill, 14 (2009), pii=19309. |
[45] |
Z. Vajo, J. Wood, L. Kosa, I. Szilvasy, Gy. Paragh, Zs. Pauliny, K. Bartha, I. Visontay, A. Kis and I. Jankovics, A single-dose influenza A (H5N1) vaccine safe and immunogenic in adult and elderly patients - an approach to pandemic vaccine development, J. Virol., 84 (2009), 1237-1242.
doi: 10.1128/JVI.01894-09. |
[46] |
Y. Yang, J. D. Sugimoto, M. E. Halloran, N. E. Basta, D. L. Chao, L. Matrajt, G. Potter, E. Kenah and I. M. Longini Jr., The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus, Science, 326 (2009), 729-733.
doi: 10.1126/science.1177373. |
show all references
References:
[1] |
M. E. Alexander, C. S. Bowman, Z. Feng, M. Gardam, S. M. Moghadas, G. Röst, J. Wu and P. Yan, Emergence of drug-resistance: Implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza, P. Roy. Soc. B - Biol. Sci., 274 (2007), 1675-1684. |
[2] |
M. E. Alexander, S. M. Moghadas, G. Röst and J. Wu, A delay differential model for pandemic influenza with antiviral treatment, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 70 (2008), 382-397.
doi: 10.1007/s11538-007-9257-2. |
[3] |
J. Arino, F. Brauer, P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough and J. Wu, Simple models for containment of a pandemic, J. R. Soc. Interface, 3 (2006), 453-457.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0112. |
[4] |
P. Baccam, C. Beauchemin, C. A. Macken, F. G. Hayden and A. S. Perelson, Kinetics of influenza A virus infection in humans, J. Virol., 80 (2006), 7590-7599.
doi: 10.1128/JVI.01623-05. |
[5] |
D. Balcan et al., Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): A Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility, BMC Medicine, 7 (2009).
doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-45. |
[6] |
N. E. Basta, E. M. Halloran, L. Matrajt and I. M. Longini Jr., Estimating influenza vaccine efficacy from challenge and community-based study data, Am. J. Epidemiol., 168 (2008), 1343-1352.
doi: 10.1093/aje/kwn259. |
[7] |
G. Chowell, C. E. Ammon, N. W. Hengartner and J. M. Hyman, Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions, J. Theor. Biol., 241 (2006), 193-204.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.11.026. |
[8] |
G. Chowell, M. A. Miller and C. Viboud, Seasonal influenza in the United States, France and Australia: Transmission and prospects for control, Epidemiol. Infect., 136 (2007), 852-864. |
[9] |
G. Chowell, C. Viboud, X. Wang, S. Bertozzi and M. Miller, Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza - Mexico as a case study, PLoS ONE, 4 (2009), e8164.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008164. |
[10] |
CDC, Prevention and control of influenza: Recommendations of the advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP), July 17, 2008 / 57 (Early Release), (2008), 1-60 |
[11] |
CDC, "Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine," http://www.cdc.gov/Flu/protect/keyfacts.htm, 2009. |
[12] |
O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek and M. G. Roberts, The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models, J. R. Soc. Interface, 7 (2010), 873-885
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0386. |
[13] |
L. J. Donaldson, P. D. Rutter, B. M. Ellis, F. E. C. Greaves, O. T. Mytton, R. G. Pebody and I. E. Yardley, Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: Public health surveillance study, British Medical Journal, 339 (2009), b5213. |
[14] |
European CDC Risk Assessment, "Pandemic H1N1," Version 6, 6 November 2009. |
[15] |
Eurostat, "Population Statistics 2006 Edition," Official Publications of the European Communities (Luxembourg), 2006. |
[16] |
F. Falus and B. Oroszi, "National Chief Medical Officer's Office," Hungary, personal communication, 2009. |
[17] |
N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka and P. C. Cooley, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, Nature, 442 (2006), 448-452.
doi: 10.1038/nature04795. |
[18] |
D. M. Fleming and A. J. Elliot, Estimating the risk population in relation to influenza vaccination policy, Vaccine, 24 (2006), 4378-4385.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.02.053. |
[19] |
M. Z. Gojovic, B. Sander, D. Fisman, M. D. Krahn and C. T. Bauch, Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Can. Med. Assoc. J., 181 (2009), 673 10.1503/cmaj.091641.
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.091641. |
[20] |
E. Goldstein, A. Apolloni, B. Lewis, J. C. Miller, M. Macauley, S. Eubank, M. Lipsitch and J. Wallinga, Distribution of vaccine/antivirals and the least spread line in a stratified population, J. R. Soc. Interface, 7 (2009), 755-764.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0393. |
[21] |
M. E. Greenberg, M. H. Lai, G. F. Hartel, C. H. Wichems, C. Gittleson, J. Bennet, G. Dawson, W. Hu, C. Leggio, D. Washington and R. L. Basser, Response to a monovalent influenza a (H1N1) 2009 vaccine, N. Eng. J. Med., 361 (2009), 2405-2413.
doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0907413. |
[22] |
K. Hancock, V. Veguilla, X. Lu, et al., Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, N. Engl. J. Med., 361 (2009), 1945-1952.
doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0906453. |
[23] |
J. M. Heffernan, R. J. Smith and L. M. Wahl, Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio, J. R. Soc. Interface, 2 (2005), 281-293.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2005.0042. |
[24] |
K. Johansen, A. Nicoll, B. C. Ciancio and P. Kramarz, Pandemic influenza A(A(H1N1)v) 2009 vaccines in the European Union, Euro Surveill, 14 (2009), pii=19361. |
[25] |
I. M. Longini Jr and M. E. Halloran, Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children, Am. J. Epidemiol., 161 (2005), 303.
doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi053. |
[26] |
L. Matrajt and I. M. Longini, "Optimizing Vaccine Allocation at Different Points in Time During an Epidemic," UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series 363, 2010. |
[27] |
J. Medlock and A. P. Galvani, Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution, Science, 325 (2009), 1705-1708.
doi: 10.1126/science.1175570. |
[28] |
J. Medlock, L. A. Meyers and A. P. Galvani, "Optimizing Allocation for a Delayed Influenza Vaccine Campaign," PLOS Curr Influenza, RRN1134, 2010. |
[29] |
S. Merler, M. Ajelli and C. Rizzo, Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic, BMC Infectious Diseases, 9 (2009), 117.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-9-117. |
[30] |
E. Miller, K. Hoschler, P. Hardelid, E. Stanford, N. Andrews and M. Zambon, Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study, The Lancet, 375 (2010), 1100-1108.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)62126-7. |
[31] |
S. M. Moghadas, C. S. Bowman, G. Röst and J. Wu, Population-wide emergence of antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza, PLOS ONE, 3 (2008), e1839. |
[32] |
S. M. Moghadas, C. S. Bowman, G. Röst, D. Fisman and J. Wu, Post-exposure prophylaxis during pandemic outbreaks, BMC Medicine, 3 (2009). |
[33] |
S. Moghadas, T. Day, C. Bauch, S. M. Driedger, F. Brauer, A. L. Greer, P. Yan, J. Wu, N. Pizzi and D. N. Fisman, Modelling an influenza pandemic: A guide for the perplexed, Can. Med. Assoc. J., August 4, 2009, 181 (2009), 171-173. |
[34] |
J. Mossong, N. Hens, M. Nit et al., Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases, PLOS Medicine, 5 (2008), e74.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074. |
[35] |
S. D. Mylius, T. J. Hagenaars, A. K. Lugnér and J. Wallinga, Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing, Vaccine, 26 (2008), 3742-3749.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.043. |
[36] |
K. L. Nichol, Efficacy/clinical effectiveness of inactivated influenza virus vaccines in adults 1998, In: Nicholson KG, Webster RG, Hay AJ, editors. Textbook of influenza. Malden, MA: Blackwell Science Ltd., (1998), 358-372. |
[37] |
H. Nishiura and K. Iwata, A simple mathematical approach to deciding the dosage of vaccine against pandemic H1N1 influenza, Euro. Surveill, 14 (2009), pii=19396. |
[38] |
A. M. Presanis, D. De Angelis, A. Hagy, C. Reed, S. Riley, et al., The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis, PLoS Med., 6 (2009), e1000207.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207. |
[39] |
R. Robinson, "A(H1N1)v Vaccine Products and Production, ACIP July 2009 Meeting," www.cdc.gov/vaccines/recs/acip/downloads/mtg-slides-jul09-flu/05-Flu-Robinson.pdf. |
[40] |
R. E. Serfling, I. L. Sherman and W. J. Houseworth, Excess pneumonia-influenza mortality by age and sex in three major influenza A2 epidemics, United States, 1957-58, 1960 and 1963, Am. J. Epidemiol., 86 (1967), 433-441. |
[41] |
V. Sypsa, I. Pavlopoulou and A. Hatzakis, "Use of an Inactivated Vaccine in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Spread: A Modelling Study to Assess the Impact of Vaccination Timing and Prioritisation Strategies," Euro Surveill, 2009, pii=19356. |
[42] |
A. R. Tuite, D. N. Fisman, J. C. Kwong and A. L. Greer, Optimal pandemic influenza vaccine allocation strategies for the Canadian population, PLOS ONE, 5 (2010), e10520.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010520. |
[43] |
A. R. Tuite, A. L. Greer, M. Whelan, A. L. Winter, B. Lee, P. Yan, J. Wu, S. M. Moghadas, D. Buckeridge, B. Pourbohloul and D. N. Fisman, Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza, Can. Med. Assoc. J., 182 (2009), 131.
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.091807. |
[44] |
L. Vaillant, G. La Ruche, P. Barboza, for the epidemic intelligence team at InVS, Epidemiology of fatal cases associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza 2009, Euro., Surveill, 14 (2009), pii=19309. |
[45] |
Z. Vajo, J. Wood, L. Kosa, I. Szilvasy, Gy. Paragh, Zs. Pauliny, K. Bartha, I. Visontay, A. Kis and I. Jankovics, A single-dose influenza A (H5N1) vaccine safe and immunogenic in adult and elderly patients - an approach to pandemic vaccine development, J. Virol., 84 (2009), 1237-1242.
doi: 10.1128/JVI.01894-09. |
[46] |
Y. Yang, J. D. Sugimoto, M. E. Halloran, N. E. Basta, D. L. Chao, L. Matrajt, G. Potter, E. Kenah and I. M. Longini Jr., The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus, Science, 326 (2009), 729-733.
doi: 10.1126/science.1177373. |
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