American Institute of Mathematical Sciences

Advanced
2011, 8(1): 65-76. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.65

Pandemic mitigation: Bringing it home

Tom Reichert 1,

1. 

Entropy Research Institute, 345 S Great Rd, Lincoln MA 01773, United States

Received  July 2010 Revised  August 2010 Published  January 2011

In the US, national, regional and even institutional plans for ameliorating the effects of pandemic influenza focus on stockpiling antiviral medications, early production and distribution of vaccine, mass and personal social distancing, and a number of personal hygiene activities. Essential personnel are the first scheduled to receive preventive and therapeutic pharmaceuticals, followed by high risk groups, the largest of which are the elderly. Specific recommendations for protection embody a bunker mentality with a time horizon of two weeks, emulating preparation for a natural disaster. The epidemiology of pandemic influenza is scarcely considered.
   We summarize here the envelope of mortality attributable to epidemic and pandemic influenza in the last 90 years of the last century as a lead in to a presentation of the multinational case age distribution of the novel H1N1 pandemic of 2009. We discuss the sparing of elderly subpopulations in pandemics and the subsequent abrupt resurgence of mortality in the spared age groups as drift variants emerge. The general decline in the baseline of age-specific excess mortality in economically developed countries is characterized and its importance assessed.
   Models of acute and chronic care facilities are discussed and an argument is advanced that society as a whole as well as acute care facilities cannot be protected against incursion and widespread infection in pandemics of severity above low moderate. The key findings of models of chronic care institutions and others that can control public access, such as corporations, are used to describe programs with a realistic chance of providing protection in even severe pandemics. These principles are further mapped onto individual residences. Materials directing institutional and home planning are cited.
Keywords: Pandemic mitigation; excess mortality; protecting the home, protecting institutions..
Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 58F15, 58F17; Secondary: 53C3.
Citation: Tom Reichert. Pandemic mitigation: Bringing it home. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2011, 8 (1) : 65-76. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.65
References:
[1]

T. Reichert, G. Chowell, H. Nishiura, R. A. Christensen and J. A. McCullers, Does glycosylation as a modifier of original antigenic sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza?, BMC Infect Dis, 10 (2010), 5. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-5.

[2]

L. Simonsen, M. J. Clarke, L. B. Schonberger, N. H. Arden, N. J. Cox and K. Fukuda, Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: A pattern of changing age distribution, J Infect Dis, 178 (1998), 53-60.

[3]

L. Simonsen, T. A. Reichert, C. Viboud, W. C. Blackwelder, R. J. Taylor and M. A. Miller, Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population, Arch Intern Med, 165 (2005), 265-272. doi: 10.1001/archinte.165.3.265.

[4]

, URL http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2010/t100329.htm.

[5]

, URL http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_05_14/en/index.html.

[6]

M. Igarashi, K. Ito, R. Yoshida, D. Tomabechi, H. Kida, et al., Predicting the antigenic structure of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus hemagglutinin, PLoS ONE, 5 (2010), e8553. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0008553 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008553.

[7]

C.-J. Wei, J. C. Boyington, K. Dai, K. V. Houser, M. B. Pearce, W.-P. Kong, Z.-Y. Yang, T. M. Tumpey and G. J. Nabel, Cross-neutralization of 1918 and 2009 influenza viruses: Role of glycans in viral evolution and vaccine design, Sci. Transl. Med, 2 (2010), 24ra21.

[8]

T. Reichert and R. A. Christensen, It's not about smoldering or neuraminidase - There were two variants of the A(H3N2) pandemic virus differing in internal genes, JID, 192 (2005), 1858-1860. doi: 10.1086/497153.

[9]

W. R. Dowdle, Influenza A virus recycling revisited, Bull WHO 1999, 77 (1999), 820-828, for a summary of the literature.

[10]

D. Cohen and P. Carter, Conflict of Interest WHO and the pandemic flu "conspiracy", BMJ, 340 (2010), c2912.

[11]

The Macroepidemiology of Influenza Vaccination (MIV) Study Group, The macroepidemiology of influenza vaccination in 56 countries, 1997-2003, Vaccine, 23 (2005), 5133-5143. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2005.06.010.

[12]

D. M. Morens, D. S. Burke and S. B. Halstead, The wages of original antigenic sin, EID, 16 (2010), 1023-1024.

[13]

T. Francis, Doctrine of original antigenic sin, Proc Am Philos Soc, 104 (1960), 572-578.

[14]

, URL http://www.arlingtoncemetery.net/jmpoyer.htm.

[15]

H. Markel et al., Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, J Am Med Assoc, 298 (2007), 644-654

[16]

H. Markel, A. M. Stern, J. A. Navarro and J. R. Michalsen, "A Historical Assessment of Nonpharmaceutical Disease Containment Strategies Employed by Selected U.S. Communities During the Second Wave of the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic," http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/assets/dtra_final_influenza_report.pdf.

[17]

J. M. Barry, Letter to the editor, J Am Med Assoc, 298 (2007), 2260.

[18]

M. Nuno, G. Chowell and A. B. Gumel, Assessing the role of basic control measures,antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: Scenarios for the US, UK, and the Netherlands, Proc R Soc Interface, 4 (2007), 505-521. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0186.

[19]

M. Nuno, T. A. Reichert, G. Chowell and A. B. Gumel, Protecting residential care facilities against pandemic influenza: Interactive translational research involving SLIR stochastic models, PNAS, 105 (2008), 10625-10630. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0712014105.

[20]

, http://pandemicflu.gov/individualfamily/checklist.html,, accessed on 28 July, (2010). 

[21]

Flu Pandemic Planning for Residential Care, is a copyrighted DVD/CD combination that provides detailed, instruction and templates for developing and implementing a pandemic plan for a residential facility, It is available at www.entropylimited.com.

[22]

Defending Your Family from a Flu Pandemic, is a DVD copyrighted in 2009 and available from FluDefender, LLC at GriffithVideo@gmail.com.

[23]

G. Chowell, C. Viboud, X. Wang, S. M. Bertozzi and M. A. Miller, Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study, PLoS One, 4 (2009), e8164. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008164.

[24]

J. Medlock and A. P. Galvani, Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution, Science, 325 (2009), 1705-1708. doi: 10.1126/science.1175570.

show all references

References:
[1]

T. Reichert, G. Chowell, H. Nishiura, R. A. Christensen and J. A. McCullers, Does glycosylation as a modifier of original antigenic sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza?, BMC Infect Dis, 10 (2010), 5. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-5.

[2]

L. Simonsen, M. J. Clarke, L. B. Schonberger, N. H. Arden, N. J. Cox and K. Fukuda, Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: A pattern of changing age distribution, J Infect Dis, 178 (1998), 53-60.

[3]

L. Simonsen, T. A. Reichert, C. Viboud, W. C. Blackwelder, R. J. Taylor and M. A. Miller, Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population, Arch Intern Med, 165 (2005), 265-272. doi: 10.1001/archinte.165.3.265.

[4]

, URL http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2010/t100329.htm.

[5]

, URL http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_05_14/en/index.html.

[6]

M. Igarashi, K. Ito, R. Yoshida, D. Tomabechi, H. Kida, et al., Predicting the antigenic structure of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus hemagglutinin, PLoS ONE, 5 (2010), e8553. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0008553 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008553.

[7]

C.-J. Wei, J. C. Boyington, K. Dai, K. V. Houser, M. B. Pearce, W.-P. Kong, Z.-Y. Yang, T. M. Tumpey and G. J. Nabel, Cross-neutralization of 1918 and 2009 influenza viruses: Role of glycans in viral evolution and vaccine design, Sci. Transl. Med, 2 (2010), 24ra21.

[8]

T. Reichert and R. A. Christensen, It's not about smoldering or neuraminidase - There were two variants of the A(H3N2) pandemic virus differing in internal genes, JID, 192 (2005), 1858-1860. doi: 10.1086/497153.

[9]

W. R. Dowdle, Influenza A virus recycling revisited, Bull WHO 1999, 77 (1999), 820-828, for a summary of the literature.

[10]

D. Cohen and P. Carter, Conflict of Interest WHO and the pandemic flu "conspiracy", BMJ, 340 (2010), c2912.

[11]

The Macroepidemiology of Influenza Vaccination (MIV) Study Group, The macroepidemiology of influenza vaccination in 56 countries, 1997-2003, Vaccine, 23 (2005), 5133-5143. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2005.06.010.

[12]

D. M. Morens, D. S. Burke and S. B. Halstead, The wages of original antigenic sin, EID, 16 (2010), 1023-1024.

[13]

T. Francis, Doctrine of original antigenic sin, Proc Am Philos Soc, 104 (1960), 572-578.

[14]

, URL http://www.arlingtoncemetery.net/jmpoyer.htm.

[15]

H. Markel et al., Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, J Am Med Assoc, 298 (2007), 644-654

[16]

H. Markel, A. M. Stern, J. A. Navarro and J. R. Michalsen, "A Historical Assessment of Nonpharmaceutical Disease Containment Strategies Employed by Selected U.S. Communities During the Second Wave of the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic," http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/assets/dtra_final_influenza_report.pdf.

[17]

J. M. Barry, Letter to the editor, J Am Med Assoc, 298 (2007), 2260.

[18]

M. Nuno, G. Chowell and A. B. Gumel, Assessing the role of basic control measures,antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: Scenarios for the US, UK, and the Netherlands, Proc R Soc Interface, 4 (2007), 505-521. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0186.

[19]

M. Nuno, T. A. Reichert, G. Chowell and A. B. Gumel, Protecting residential care facilities against pandemic influenza: Interactive translational research involving SLIR stochastic models, PNAS, 105 (2008), 10625-10630. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0712014105.

[20]

, http://pandemicflu.gov/individualfamily/checklist.html,, accessed on 28 July, (2010). 

[21]

Flu Pandemic Planning for Residential Care, is a copyrighted DVD/CD combination that provides detailed, instruction and templates for developing and implementing a pandemic plan for a residential facility, It is available at www.entropylimited.com.

[22]

Defending Your Family from a Flu Pandemic, is a DVD copyrighted in 2009 and available from FluDefender, LLC at GriffithVideo@gmail.com.

[23]

G. Chowell, C. Viboud, X. Wang, S. M. Bertozzi and M. A. Miller, Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study, PLoS One, 4 (2009), e8164. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008164.

[24]

J. Medlock and A. P. Galvani, Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution, Science, 325 (2009), 1705-1708. doi: 10.1126/science.1175570.

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