The impact of migrant workers on the tuberculosis transmission: General models and a case study forChina

Luju Liu; Jianhong Wu; Xiao-Qiang Zhao

doi:10.3934/mbe.2012.9.785

Article Contents

2012, Volume 9, Issue 4: 785-807. Doi: 10.3934/mbe.2012.9.785

This issue Previous Article Global analysis of a simple parasite-host model with homoclinic orbits Next Article Low viral persistence of an immunological model

The impact of migrant workers on the tuberculosis transmission: General models and a case study for China

1.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, 471023
2.
Centre for Disease Modeling, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON M3J1P3
3.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7

Received: October 2011

Revised: July 2012

Published: September 2012

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Abstract

A tuberculosis (TB) transmission model involving migrant workers is proposed and investigated. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ is calculated, and is shown to be a threshold parameter for the disease to persist or become extinct in the population. The existence and global attractivity of an endemic equilibrium, if $\mathcal{R}_{0}>1$, is also established under some technical conditions. A case study, based on the TB epidemiological and other statistical data in China, indicates that the disease spread can be controlled if effective measures are taken to reduce the reactivation rate of exposed/latent migrant workers. Impact of the migration rate and direction, as well as the duration of home visit stay, on the control of disease spread is also examined numerically.

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Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 34D23; Secondary: 92D30.

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