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2013, 10(5&6): 1673-1686. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1673

Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat'' to eliminate HIV epidemics

Bradley G. Wagner 1, , Brian J. Coburn 1, and  Sally Blower 1,

1. 

Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024, United States, United States, United States

Received  November 2012 Revised  March 2013 Published  August 2013

Treating HIV-infected individuals reduces their viral load, consequently increasing their survival time and decreasing their infectivity. It has been proposed that universal testing and treatment (i.e., universal ``test & treat'') could lead to HIV elimination and would be extremely cost-effective. It is now being debated whether to use a universal ``test and treat'' approach in the ``real-world'' as a prevention strategy to control HIV epidemics. However current modeling predictions of the impact, and cost-effectiveness, of universal ``test & treat'' strategies are based on an unrealistically short survival time for treated individuals. Here we use mathematical modeling and a longer, more realistic, survival time. We model the potential impact of a universal ``test & treat'' strategy in South Africa. Our results show that increasing the length of the survival time on treatment, although beneficial to individuals, reduces the probability of eliminating HIV and decreases the cost-effectiveness of using universal ``test & treat'' strategies. Therefore our results show that individual-level benefits and public health benefits will conflict when using ``test & treat'' strategies to reduce HIV transmission.
Keywords: cost-effectiveness., HIV epidemics, transmission model.
Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 92D30, 92C60; Secondary: 92C5.
Citation: Bradley G. Wagner, Brian J. Coburn, Sally Blower. Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat'' to eliminate HIV epidemics. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2013, 10 (5&6) : 1673-1686. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1673
References:
[1]

S. Blower, H. B. Gershengorn and R. M. Grant, A tale of two futures: HIV and antiviral therapy in San Francisco, Science, 287 (2000), 650-654.

[2]

S. Blower, L. Ma, P. Farmer and S. Koenig, Predicting the impact of antiretrovirals in resource-poor settings: preventing HIV infections whilst controlling drug resistance, Curr. Drug Targets Infect. Disord., 3 (2003), 345-353. doi: 10.2174/1568005033480999.

[3]

S. Blower and H. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example, Int. Stat. Rev., 62 (1994), 229-243. doi: 10.2307/1403510.

[4]

M. S. Cohen, T. D. Mastro and W. Cates, Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy, Lancet, 373 (2009), 1077; author reply, 1080-1071. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60640-1.

[5]

M. S. Cohen, Y. Q. Chen, M. McCauley, T. Gamble, M. C. Hosseinipour, N. Kumarasamy, J. G. Hakim, J. Kumwenda, B. Grinsztejn and J. H. S. Pilotto, et al., Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy, N. Engl. J. Med., 365 (2011), 493-505. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1105243.

[6]

M. Das, P. L. Chu, G.-M. Santos, S. Scheer, E. Vittinghoff, W. McFarland and G. N. Colfax, Decreases in community viral load are accompanied by reductions in new HIV infections in San Francisco, PLoS ONE, 5 (2010), e11068. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0011068.

[7]

C. W. Dieffenbach and A. S. Fauci, Universal voluntary testing and treatment for prevention of HIV transmission, JAMA, 301 (2009), 2380-2382. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.828.

[8]

O. Diekmann and J. A. P. Heesterbeek, "Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation,'' Wiley Series in Mathematical and Computational Biology, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester, 2000.

[9]

P. J. Dodd, G. P. Garnett and T. B. Hallett, Examining the promise of HIV elimination by 'test and treat' in hyperendemic settings, AIDS, 24 (2010), 729-735. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833433fe.

[10]

W. M. El-Sadr, M. Affrunti, T. Gamble and A. Zerbe, Antiretroviral therapy: A promising HIV prevention strategy?, J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr., 55 (2010), S116-121. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181fbca6e.

[11]

P. Farmer, F. Léandre, J. S. Mukheriee, M. Claude, P. Nevil, M. C. Smith-Fawzi, S. P. Koenig, A. Castro, M. C. Becerra, J. Sachs, et al., Community-based approaches to HIV treatment in resource-poor settings, Lancet, 358 (2001), 404-409. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(01)05550-7.

[12]

E. M. Gardner, M. P. McLees, J. F. Steiner, C. del Rio and W. J. Burman, The spectrum of engagement in HIV care and its relevance to test-and-treat strategies for prevention of HIV infection, Clin. Infect. Dis., 52 (2011), 793-800. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciq243.

[13]

G. P. Garnett and R. F. Baggaley, Treating our way out of the HIV pandemic: Could we, would we, should we?, Lancet, 373 (2009), 9-11. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61698-0.

[14]

R. M. Granich, C. F. Gilks, C. Dye, K. M. De Cock and B. G. Williams, Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: A mathematical model, Lancet, 373 (2009), 48-57. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61697-9.

[15]

R. Granich, J. G. Kahn, R. Bennett, C. B. Holmes, N. Garg, C. Serenata, M. L. Sabin, C. Makhlouf-Obermeyer, C. De Filippo Mack and P. Williams, et al., Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: Estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050, PLoS ONE, 7 (2012), e30216. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030216.

[16]

R. H. Gray, M. J. Wawer, R. Brookmeyer, N. K. Sewankambo, D. Serwadda, F. Wabwire-Mangen, T. Lutalo, X. Li, T. vanCott, T. C. Quinn and R. P. Team, Probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in monogamous, heterosexual, HIV-1-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda, Lancet, 357 (2001), 1149-1153. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(00)04331-2.

[17]

H. W. Hethcote and J. A. Yorke, "Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control," Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, 56, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1984.

[18]

V. D. Lima, K. Johnston, R. S. Hogg, A. R. Levy, P. R. Harrigan, A. Anema and J. S. G. Montaner, Expanded access to highly active antiretroviral therapy: A potentially powerful strategy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic, J. Infect. Dis., 198 (2008), 59-67. doi: 10.1086/588673.

[19]

E. J. Mills, C. Bakanda, J. Birungi, K. Chan, N. Ford, C. L. Cooper, J. B. Nachega, M. Dybul and R. S. Hogg, Life expectancy of persons receiving combination antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: A cohort analysis from Uganda, Ann. Intern. Med., 155 (2011), 209-216. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-155-4-201108160-00358.

[20]

J. S. G. Montaner, R. Hogg, E. Wood, T. Kerr, M. Tyndall, A. R. Levy and P. R. Harrigan, The case for expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic, Lancet, 368 (2006), 531-536. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69162-9.

[21]

National Department of Health, The national antenatal sentinel HIV and syphilis prevalence survey, South Africa, 2006, (2007).

[22]

National Department of Health, The national antenatal sentinel HIV and syphilis prevalence survey, South Africa, 2010, (2011).

[23]

P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6.

[24]

J. X. Velasco-Hernandez, H. B. Gershengorn and S. M. Blower, Could widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics?, Lancet Infect. Dis., 2 (2002), 487-493. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(02)00346-8.

[25]

B. G. Wagner, J. S. Kahn and S. Blower, Should we try to eliminate HIV epidemics by using a 'Test and Treat' strategy?, AIDS, 24 (2010), 775-776. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283366782.

[26]

B. G. Wagner and S. Blower, Costs of eliminating HIV in South Africa have been underestimated, Lancet, 376 (2010), 953-954. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61442-0.

[27]

B. G. Wagner and S. Blower, Universal access to HIV treatment versus universal 'test and treat': Transmission, drug resistance & treatment costs, PLoS ONE, 7 (2012), e41212. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041212.

show all references

References:
[1]

S. Blower, H. B. Gershengorn and R. M. Grant, A tale of two futures: HIV and antiviral therapy in San Francisco, Science, 287 (2000), 650-654.

[2]

S. Blower, L. Ma, P. Farmer and S. Koenig, Predicting the impact of antiretrovirals in resource-poor settings: preventing HIV infections whilst controlling drug resistance, Curr. Drug Targets Infect. Disord., 3 (2003), 345-353. doi: 10.2174/1568005033480999.

[3]

S. Blower and H. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example, Int. Stat. Rev., 62 (1994), 229-243. doi: 10.2307/1403510.

[4]

M. S. Cohen, T. D. Mastro and W. Cates, Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy, Lancet, 373 (2009), 1077; author reply, 1080-1071. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60640-1.

[5]

M. S. Cohen, Y. Q. Chen, M. McCauley, T. Gamble, M. C. Hosseinipour, N. Kumarasamy, J. G. Hakim, J. Kumwenda, B. Grinsztejn and J. H. S. Pilotto, et al., Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy, N. Engl. J. Med., 365 (2011), 493-505. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1105243.

[6]

M. Das, P. L. Chu, G.-M. Santos, S. Scheer, E. Vittinghoff, W. McFarland and G. N. Colfax, Decreases in community viral load are accompanied by reductions in new HIV infections in San Francisco, PLoS ONE, 5 (2010), e11068. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0011068.

[7]

C. W. Dieffenbach and A. S. Fauci, Universal voluntary testing and treatment for prevention of HIV transmission, JAMA, 301 (2009), 2380-2382. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.828.

[8]

O. Diekmann and J. A. P. Heesterbeek, "Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation,'' Wiley Series in Mathematical and Computational Biology, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester, 2000.

[9]

P. J. Dodd, G. P. Garnett and T. B. Hallett, Examining the promise of HIV elimination by 'test and treat' in hyperendemic settings, AIDS, 24 (2010), 729-735. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833433fe.

[10]

W. M. El-Sadr, M. Affrunti, T. Gamble and A. Zerbe, Antiretroviral therapy: A promising HIV prevention strategy?, J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr., 55 (2010), S116-121. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181fbca6e.

[11]

P. Farmer, F. Léandre, J. S. Mukheriee, M. Claude, P. Nevil, M. C. Smith-Fawzi, S. P. Koenig, A. Castro, M. C. Becerra, J. Sachs, et al., Community-based approaches to HIV treatment in resource-poor settings, Lancet, 358 (2001), 404-409. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(01)05550-7.

[12]

E. M. Gardner, M. P. McLees, J. F. Steiner, C. del Rio and W. J. Burman, The spectrum of engagement in HIV care and its relevance to test-and-treat strategies for prevention of HIV infection, Clin. Infect. Dis., 52 (2011), 793-800. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciq243.

[13]

G. P. Garnett and R. F. Baggaley, Treating our way out of the HIV pandemic: Could we, would we, should we?, Lancet, 373 (2009), 9-11. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61698-0.

[14]

R. M. Granich, C. F. Gilks, C. Dye, K. M. De Cock and B. G. Williams, Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: A mathematical model, Lancet, 373 (2009), 48-57. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61697-9.

[15]

R. Granich, J. G. Kahn, R. Bennett, C. B. Holmes, N. Garg, C. Serenata, M. L. Sabin, C. Makhlouf-Obermeyer, C. De Filippo Mack and P. Williams, et al., Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: Estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050, PLoS ONE, 7 (2012), e30216. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030216.

[16]

R. H. Gray, M. J. Wawer, R. Brookmeyer, N. K. Sewankambo, D. Serwadda, F. Wabwire-Mangen, T. Lutalo, X. Li, T. vanCott, T. C. Quinn and R. P. Team, Probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in monogamous, heterosexual, HIV-1-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda, Lancet, 357 (2001), 1149-1153. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(00)04331-2.

[17]

H. W. Hethcote and J. A. Yorke, "Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control," Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, 56, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1984.

[18]

V. D. Lima, K. Johnston, R. S. Hogg, A. R. Levy, P. R. Harrigan, A. Anema and J. S. G. Montaner, Expanded access to highly active antiretroviral therapy: A potentially powerful strategy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic, J. Infect. Dis., 198 (2008), 59-67. doi: 10.1086/588673.

[19]

E. J. Mills, C. Bakanda, J. Birungi, K. Chan, N. Ford, C. L. Cooper, J. B. Nachega, M. Dybul and R. S. Hogg, Life expectancy of persons receiving combination antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: A cohort analysis from Uganda, Ann. Intern. Med., 155 (2011), 209-216. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-155-4-201108160-00358.

[20]

J. S. G. Montaner, R. Hogg, E. Wood, T. Kerr, M. Tyndall, A. R. Levy and P. R. Harrigan, The case for expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic, Lancet, 368 (2006), 531-536. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69162-9.

[21]

National Department of Health, The national antenatal sentinel HIV and syphilis prevalence survey, South Africa, 2006, (2007).

[22]

National Department of Health, The national antenatal sentinel HIV and syphilis prevalence survey, South Africa, 2010, (2011).

[23]

P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6.

[24]

J. X. Velasco-Hernandez, H. B. Gershengorn and S. M. Blower, Could widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics?, Lancet Infect. Dis., 2 (2002), 487-493. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(02)00346-8.

[25]

B. G. Wagner, J. S. Kahn and S. Blower, Should we try to eliminate HIV epidemics by using a 'Test and Treat' strategy?, AIDS, 24 (2010), 775-776. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283366782.

[26]

B. G. Wagner and S. Blower, Costs of eliminating HIV in South Africa have been underestimated, Lancet, 376 (2010), 953-954. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61442-0.

[27]

B. G. Wagner and S. Blower, Universal access to HIV treatment versus universal 'test and treat': Transmission, drug resistance & treatment costs, PLoS ONE, 7 (2012), e41212. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041212.

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